Both teams to score
Yes47%
No53%
All matches
Czech Republic — Spain, UEFA Nations League: match prediction and stats
Match prediction and stats
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
13%24%63%
Czech Republic13%Draw24%Spain63%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and second estimate
Our probability next to the second estimate — independent, with no mark-up. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelSecond estimateΔ
1Czech Republic——
XDraw——
2Spain——
our modelsecond estimate — independent, no mark-up
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the second estimate.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the second estimate.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Czech RepublicSpain
Czech Republic 13%, Spain 63%. The safest is “Spain or draw” at 87%.
Czech Republic 13%Draw 24%Spain 63%
1st half
22 · 41 · 37
2nd half
11 · 32 · 57
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Away
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCzech RepublicSpainCombined
Goals scored0.402.603.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Czech Republic- 5 defeats in a row0:3, 1:3, 0:2, 1:2, 0:3
- Winless at home in 6 matches0:2, 1:2, 0:3, 1:1, 2:2
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches13 goals conceded
Spain- 11 wins in a row2:1, 3:1, 4:1, 3:2, 1:0
- Unbeaten away in 6 matches2:1, 3:2, 2:0, 1:0, 1:0
- 13 goals in the last 5 matches2:1, 3:1, 4:1, 3:2, 1:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Czech Republic
- awayEngland0:3
- awaySpain1:3
- homeEngland0:2
- homeCroatia1:2
- homeMexico0:3
Spain
- awayCroatia2:1
- homeCzech Republic3:1
- homeCroatia4:1
- awayEngland3:2
- homeArgentina1:0
Head to head
- 10/03/26UEFA Nations League1:3
- 06/12/22UEFA Nations League0:2
- 06/05/22UEFA Nations League2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the second estimate on the right.
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Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.