Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
Italy — France, UEFA Nations League: match prediction and stats
Match prediction and stats
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
29%29%42%
Italy29%Draw29%France42%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Italy3.49—
XDraw3.44—
2France2.37—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards prediction
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ItalyFrance
Italy 29%, France 42%. The safest is “France or draw” at 71%.
Italy 29%Draw 29%France 42%
1st half
34 · 42 · 24
2nd half
21 · 35 · 45
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Away or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricItalyFranceCombined
Goals scored1.802.204.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Italy- Led at half-time in 6 of 10 matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 53:1, 1:1, 4:1, 0:2, 1:1
- 2.3 goals per game at home7 matches
France- Unbeaten away in 6 matches1:0, 1:0, 1:0, 4:1, 3:1
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches4:1, 1:1, 1:0, 1:0, 4:6
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Italy
- homeTurkey3:1
- awayFrance1:1
- awayTurkey4:1
- homeBelgium0:2
- awayBosnia and Herzegovina1:1
France
- homeBelgium4:1
- homeItaly1:1
- awayBelgium1:0
- awayTurkey1:0
- homeEngland4:6
Head to head
- 10/02/26UEFA Nations League1:1
- 11/17/24UEFA Nations League1:3
- 09/06/24UEFA Nations League3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.