UEFA Nations League

EnglandВПВВВ
—
SpainВВВВВ
1England56%model1.77bookmaker2.96
XDraw19%model5.40bookmaker3.38
2Spain25%model3.99bookmaker2.52

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

calculated at 21:05, 255 мс

Outcome

England56%
Draw19%
Spain25%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on England vs Spain

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour England: a home win is rated at 56%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

England

WLWWW
  • awayFrance6:4
  • homeArgentina1:2
  • awayNorway2:1
  • awayMexico3:2
  • homeCongo DR2:1

Spain

WWWWW
  • homeArgentina1:0
  • awayFrance2:0
  • homeBelgium2:1
  • awayPortugal1:0
  • homeAustria3:0

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Англия vs Испания: prediction and stats — VARstats