Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.05
All matches
—
SK Sturm Graz — Liebherr Grazer AK, Bundesliga
Austria, Bundesliga
SK Sturm Graz
2.6LDWLDLiebherr Grazer AK
1.4DWDLLOutcome probability
642115
SK Sturm Graz64%Draw21%Liebherr Grazer AK15%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1SK Sturm Graz1.56—
XDraw4.80—
2Liebherr Grazer AK6.55—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSK Sturm GrazLiebherr Grazer AKCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded1.172.003.17
Corners9.89.89.8
Cards2.53.45.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SK Sturm GrazLiebherr Grazer AK2.8Days of rest84Table position92Matches in 14 days140.50%Possession47.60% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SK Sturm Graz: a home win is rated at 64%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 3.5
72%
Form and context
SK Sturm Graz
- awayFC Salzburg0:3
- homeStade Rennais FC0:0
- homeLASK Linz2:1
- awaySK Rapid Wien1:3
- homeSC Austria Lustenau1:1
Liebherr Grazer AK
- homeFK Austria Wien2:2
- awaySC Rheindorf Altach2:1
- homeWolfsberger Athletik Club0:0
- awaySV Ried0:1
- awaySK Rapid Wien0:8
Head to head
- 12/07/25Bundesliga2:1
- 08/30/25Bundesliga3:0
- 03/09/25Bundesliga2:1
- 10/19/24Bundesliga5:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
FC Salzburg752018:417
FC Salzburg752018:4173
LASK Linz751119:716
LASK Linz751119:7164SK Sturm Graz73228:911
SK Sturm Graz73228:9115
SV Ried722311:128
SV Ried722311:1286
TSV Hartberg722310:138
TSV Hartberg722310:1387
WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:128
WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:1288
SC Austria Lustenau72238:118
SC Austria Lustenau72238:1189Liebherr Grazer AK72236:168
Liebherr Grazer AK72236:16810
FK Austria Wien72147:137
FK Austria Wien72147:13711
Wolfsberger Athletik Club71247:135
Wolfsberger Athletik Club71247:135