All matches

Grazer AK — Salzburg, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

Grazer AK
1.4DWDLL
—
Salzburg
2.6WWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
26%23%51%
Grazer AKMarket 5.8126%DrawMarket 4.7023%SalzburgMarket 1.4651%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Grazer AK26%17%3.865.81+8.7
XDraw23%21%4.294.70+2.1
2Salzburg51%68%1.971.46-17.7

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69book 1.57

No41%

ours 2.45book 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGrazer AKSalzburgCombined
Goals scored1.002.833.83
Conceded2.170.502.67
Corners10.09.79.8
Cards3.01.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Grazer AKSalzburg

Liebherr Grazer AK 26%, FC Salzburg 51%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

Liebherr Grazer AK 26%Draw 23%FC Salzburg 51%
1st half
26 · 34 · 41
2nd half
24 · 39 · 37

Bookmakers: 5.81 · 4.70 · 1.46

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Grazer AK

  • homeAustria Vienna2:2
  • awayRheindorf Altach2:1
  • homeWolfsberger AC0:0
  • awayRied0:1
  • awayRapid Vienna0:8

Salzburg

  • homeSturm Graz3:0
  • awayLevski Sofia1:0
  • awayRied1:1
  • homeRapid Vienna5:1
  • homeAustria Vienna4:1

Head to head

  • 02/15/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 08/09/25Bundesliga0:5
  • 11/02/24Bundesliga0:0
  • 08/02/24Bundesliga2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Rapid Vienna760121:718
2Salzburg752018:417
3LASK751119:716
4Sturm Graz73228:911
5Ried722311:128
6Hartberg722310:138
7WSG Wattens72239:128
8Austria Lustenau72238:118
9Grazer AK72236:168
10Austria Vienna72147:137
11Wolfsberger AC71247:135

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.