Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.89
No47%
ours 2.12
All matches
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FK Austria Wien — SK Sturm Graz, Bundesliga
Austria, Bundesliga
FK Austria Wien
2.3DWLLDSK Sturm Graz
2.6LDWLDOutcome probability
312742
FK Austria Wien31%Draw27%SK Sturm Graz42%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Austria Wien3.21—
XDraw3.68—
2SK Sturm Graz2.40—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFK Austria WienSK Sturm GrazCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded1.671.333.00
Corners8.812.710.8
Cards1.72.23.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Austria WienSK Sturm Graz10Table position447.80%Possession46.30%14Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SK Sturm Graz travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Form and context
FK Austria Wien
- awayLiebherr Grazer AK2:2
- homeSC Austria Lustenau2:1
- homeWSG Swarovski Wattens0:1
- awayFC Salzburg1:4
- homeSporting Braga0:0
SK Sturm Graz
- awayFC Salzburg0:3
- homeStade Rennais FC0:0
- homeLASK Linz2:1
- awaySK Rapid Wien1:3
- homeSC Austria Lustenau1:1
Head to head
- 04/26/26Bundesliga1:1
- 03/15/26Bundesliga2:5
- 12/14/25Bundesliga3:1
- 09/14/25Bundesliga1:0
- 04/27/25Bundesliga1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
FC Salzburg752018:417
FC Salzburg752018:4173
LASK Linz751119:716
LASK Linz751119:7164SK Sturm Graz73228:911
SK Sturm Graz73228:9115
SV Ried722311:128
SV Ried722311:1286
TSV Hartberg722310:138
TSV Hartberg722310:1387
WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:128
WSG Swarovski Wattens72239:1288
SC Austria Lustenau72238:118
SC Austria Lustenau72238:1189
Liebherr Grazer AK72236:168
Liebherr Grazer AK72236:16810FK Austria Wien72147:137
FK Austria Wien72147:13711
Wolfsberger Athletik Club71247:135
Wolfsberger Athletik Club71247:13512
SC Rheindorf Altach71065:123
SC Rheindorf Altach71065:123