All matches

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz: result 3:0

Austria, BundesligaMatch finished

Final score 3:0. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Salzburg 45%, Sturm Graz 28%, draw 27%.

2.9WWDWL
3:0HT 0:0
2.7DDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
45%27%28%
Salzburg45%Draw27%Sturm Graz28%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.62xG1.54
55Possession, %45
15Shots14
7Shots on target2
3Corners8
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
11Fouls14
2Offsides3

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 63 of 100
  • Match result Landed
    Salzburg45%
  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.554%
  • Both teams to score Missed
    Yes58%

    Actual: No — we had 42%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Salzburg45%2.23—
XDraw27%3.69—
2Sturm Graz28%3.58—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Salzburg

  • homeAustria Lustenau5:1
  • awayLASK3:1
  • awayCelje2:2
  • homeRheindorf Altach3:0
  • homeAC Milan0:4

Sturm Graz

  • awayWolfsberger AC1:1
  • homeRied2:2
  • homeMarseille1:0
  • homeGrazer AK6:1
  • awayBournemouth0:3

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Bundesliga3:0
  • 05/03/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 03/20/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 11/09/25Bundesliga1:1
  • 09/20/25Bundesliga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Rapid Vienna11100133:930
2Salzburg1183029:627
3LASK1171326:1322
4Sturm Graz1154219:1319
5Hartberg1152420:1917
6Ried1144319:1816

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

3 days free

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.