Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 1.98
No50%
ours 2.02
All matches
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Bournemouth — Sturm Graz, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Bournemouth
2.5LWDDD
Sturm Graz
2.6LDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
75%16%
Bournemouth75%Draw16%Sturm Graz9%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bournemouth1.34—
XDraw6.21—
2Sturm Graz10.95—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBournemouthSturm GrazCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded1.171.332.50
Corners9.211.410.3
Cards3.02.65.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BournemouthSturm Graz
AFC Bournemouth 75%, SK Sturm Graz 9%. The safest is “AFC Bournemouth or draw” at 91%.
AFC Bournemouth 75%Draw 16%SK Sturm Graz 9%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bournemouth
- homeLiverpool0:1
- awayReal Sociedad2:1
- homeBrentford2:2
- awayNewcastle United2:2
- homeEverton1:1
Sturm Graz
- awaySalzburg0:3
- homeRennes0:0
- homeLASK2:1
- awayRapid Vienna1:3
- homeAustria Lustenau1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
27
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:0328
Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
Bayer Leverkusen11002:0329Bournemouth11002:13
Bournemouth11002:1330
Lyon11002:13
Lyon11002:1331
Olympiakos11002:13
Olympiakos11002:1332
Torreense11002:13
Torreense11002:1333
Sunderland11001:03
Sunderland11001:0334
Red Star Belgrade21014:53
Red Star Belgrade21014:5335
Sint-Truiden21013:43
Sint-Truiden21013:4336
Zilina21012:33
Zilina21012:3337
Viktoria Plzen31025:73
Viktoria Plzen31025:7338
Shamrock Rovers21014:63
Shamrock Rovers21014:6339
Vikingur Reykjavik21013:53
Vikingur Reykjavik21013:5340
Kauno Zalgiris21011:33
Kauno Zalgiris21011:3341
St. Gallen21012:63
St. Gallen21012:6342
U Cluj20200:02
U Cluj20200:0243
Dynamo Kyiv40222:52
Dynamo Kyiv40222:5244
Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:01
Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:0145Sturm Graz10100:01
Sturm Graz10100:0146
Rennes10100:01
Rennes10100:0147
Dinamo Zagreb10100:01
Dinamo Zagreb10100:01Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.