Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72
No42%
ours 2.38
All matches
—
Excelsior — Twente, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Excelsior
2.2DLDWW
Twente
2.9WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
27%25%48%
Excelsior27%Draw25%Twente48%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Excelsior3.67—
XDraw4.03—
2Twente2.09—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricExcelsiorTwenteCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded1.000.331.33
Corners7.311.09.2
Cards2.31.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ExcelsiorTwente
SBV Excelsior 27%, FC Twente 48%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
SBV Excelsior 27%Draw 25%FC Twente 48%
1st half
32 · 38 · 30
2nd half
23 · 36 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Excelsior
- awayAjax2:2
- homeUtrecht1:2
- awayNEC Nijmegen2:2
- awayWillem II3:0
- homeSparta Rotterdam2:1
Twente
- homePSV3:2
- homeADO Den Haag2:0
- homeTelstar1:0
- awayGroningen2:2
- awayCambuur4:1
Head to head
- 01/24/26Eredivisie0:0
- 08/30/25Eredivisie1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Feyenoord752025:717
Feyenoord752025:7173
PSV751124:1016
PSV751124:10164Twente751115:716
Twente751115:7165
Ajax742121:914
Ajax742121:9146
Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
Fortuna Sittard741213:14137Excelsior732215:911
Excelsior732215:9118
Groningen732215:1311
Groningen732215:13119
Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.