All matches

SBV Excelsior — FC Groningen, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

SBV Excelsior
2.2DLDWW
—
FC Groningen
1.9WDDLL
Outcome probability
402931
SBV Excelsior40%Draw29%FC Groningen31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1SBV Excelsior40%2.53—
XDraw29%3.41—
2FC Groningen31%3.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSBV ExcelsiorFC GroningenCombined
Goals scored1.832.174.00
Conceded1.502.003.50
Corners8.89.89.3
Cards1.81.02.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    SBV ExcelsiorFC Groningen
    38.80%Possession48.00%
    7Table position8
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour SBV Excelsior: a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

SBV Excelsior

  • awayAFC Ajax2:2
  • homeFC Utrecht1:2
  • awayNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie2:2
  • awayWillem II3:0
  • homeSparta Rotterdam2:1

FC Groningen

  • homePEC Zwolle3:0
  • awayGo Ahead Eagles1:1
  • homeFC Twente2:2
  • homeFortuna Sittard2:3
  • awayPSV Eindhoven1:5

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Eredivisie3:2
  • 12/05/25Eredivisie0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5AFC Ajax742121:914
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7SBV Excelsior732215:911
8FC Groningen732215:1311
9Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
10SC Heerenveen723211:99

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.