All matches

Fortuna Sittard — SBV Excelsior, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard
1.7WLWWL
—
SBV Excelsior
2.2DLDWW
Outcome probability
332937
Fortuna Sittard33%Draw29%SBV Excelsior37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fortuna Sittard33%3.00—
XDraw29%3.42—
2SBV Excelsior37%2.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFortuna SittardSBV ExcelsiorCombined
Goals scored1.331.332.66
Conceded1.501.002.50
Corners8.38.88.5
Cards2.52.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Fortuna SittardSBV Excelsior
    1Matches in 14 days2
    6.7Days of rest8.7
    6Table position7
    40.50%Possession36.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, SBV Excelsior still look stronger — an away win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Fortuna Sittard

  • awayWillem II1:0
  • homeAFC Ajax1:5
  • awayHFC ADO Den Haag3:2
  • awayFC Groningen3:2
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek0:2

SBV Excelsior

  • awayAFC Ajax2:2
  • homeFC Utrecht1:2
  • awayNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie2:2
  • awayWillem II3:0
  • homeSparta Rotterdam2:1

Head to head

  • 02/20/26Eredivisie2:1
  • 10/19/25Eredivisie0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Twente751115:716
5AFC Ajax742121:914
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7SBV Excelsior732215:911
8FC Groningen732215:1311
9Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.