Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.49
All matches
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AZ Alkmaar — Twente, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar
3.0WLDWW
Twente
2.9WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%26%30%
AZ Alkmaar44%Draw26%Twente30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AZ Alkmaar2.27—
XDraw3.81—
2Twente3.36—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAZ AlkmaarTwenteCombined
Goals scored0.170.831.00
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners12.012.512.3
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AZ AlkmaarTwente
Alkmaar Zaanstreek 44%, FC Twente 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Alkmaar Zaanstreek 44%Draw 26%FC Twente 30%
1st half
40 · 36 · 23
2nd half
32 · 38 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
AZ Alkmaar
- homeTelstar1:0
- awaySunderland0:1
- homeWillem II1:1
- awayHeerenveen3:2
- homeGo Ahead Eagles5:2
Twente
- homePSV3:2
- homeADO Den Haag2:0
- homeTelstar1:0
- awayGroningen2:2
- awayCambuur4:1
Head to head
- 05/03/26Eredivisie2:2
- 11/30/25Eredivisie0:1
- 05/25/25Eredivisie3:2
- 05/14/25Eredivisie3:2
- 12/21/24Eredivisie1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AZ Alkmaar761018:619
AZ Alkmaar761018:6192
Feyenoord752025:717
Feyenoord752025:7173
PSV751124:1016
PSV751124:10164Twente751115:716
Twente751115:7165
Ajax742121:914
Ajax742121:9146
Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
Fortuna Sittard741213:1413Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.