FC Twente — FC Utrecht, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 18 at 06:00 PM

FC Twente

2.9WWWDW

—

FC Utrecht

2.3LWDLD

Outcome probability

612316

FC Twente61%Draw23%FC Utrecht16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Twente61%1.65—

XDraw23%4.33—

2FC Utrecht16%6.17—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77

No43%

ours 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC TwenteFC UtrechtCombined

Goals scored1.331.502.83

Conceded0.673.003.67

Corners11.510.611.1

Cards1.01.82.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC TwenteFC Utrecht
4Table position15
3Days of rest7.3
2Matches in 14 days1
54.50%Possession43.40%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Twente look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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