Lincoln Red Imps FC — FC Twente, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference LeagueOctober 22 at 07:00 PM

Lincoln Red Imps FC

1.8WLLDD

—

FC Twente

2.9WWWDW

Outcome probability

1775

Lincoln Red Imps FC8%Draw17%FC Twente75%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Lincoln Red Imps FC8%12.05—

XDraw17%5.91—

2FC Twente75%1.34—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLincoln Red Imps FCFC TwenteCombined

Goals scored0.671.001.67

Conceded0.670.331.00

Corners12.612.012.3

Cards3.61.04.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Lincoln Red Imps FCFC Twente
1Matches in 14 days3
74Table position37
7Days of rest4
52.20%Possession54.70%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Twente travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 75%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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