NK Osijek — NK Istra 1961, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 10 at 04:00 PM

NK Osijek

1.6DWLWL

—

NK Istra 1961

1.7LWDDL

Outcome probability

492823

NK Osijek49%Draw28%NK Istra 196123%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Osijek49%2.04—

XDraw28%3.54—

2NK Istra 196123%4.41—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK OsijekNK Istra 1961Combined

Goals scored1.501.673.17

Conceded1.671.333.00

Corners8.29.08.6

Cards2.21.84.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK OsijekNK Istra 1961
3Table position6
53.80%Possession47.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour NK Osijek: a home win is rated at 49%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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