Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
MVV — Vitesse, Eerste Divisie
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
29%23%48%
MVV29%Draw23%Vitesse48%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1MVV3.44—
XDraw4.28—
2Vitesse2.10—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MVVVitesse
MVV 29%, SBV Vitesse 48%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
MVV 29%Draw 23%SBV Vitesse 48%
1st half
25 · 38 · 37
2nd half
28 · 31 · 41
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMVVVitesseCombined
Goals scored1.200.601.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
MVV- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 9.0 per match20 teams in the league
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches2:2, 1:5, 0:1, 1:4, 2:0
Vitesse- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches0:2, 1:0, 0:2, 2:2, 0:2
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
MVV
- awayDen Bosch2:2
- homeHeracles1:5
- awayNAC Breda0:1
- awayOss1:4
- homeHelmond Sport2:0
Vitesse
- homeEmmen0:2
- awayEindhoven1:0
- awayVolendam0:2
- homeNAC Breda2:2
- awayHeracles0:2
Head to head
- 04/17/26Eerste Divisie0:0
- 10/21/25Eerste Divisie3:2
- 03/01/25Eerste Divisie0:1
- 12/06/24Eerste Divisie2:2
More matches in this competition
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.