Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.63
No38%
ours 2.60
All matches
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AZ II — Helmond Sport, Eerste Divisie
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie
AZ II
1.4WDLWW
Helmond Sport
1.1DLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%22%22%
AZ II56%Draw22%Helmond Sport22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AZ II1.78—
XDraw4.55—
2Helmond Sport4.55—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAZ IIHelmond SportCombined
Goals scored2.171.003.17
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners9.09.39.1
Cards1.52.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AZ IIHelmond Sport
Alkmaar Zaanstreek II 56%, Helmond Sport 22%. The safest is “Alkmaar Zaanstreek II or draw” at 79%.
Alkmaar Zaanstreek II 56%Draw 22%Helmond Sport 22%
1st half
41 · 34 · 25
2nd half
45 · 33 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 4.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
AZ II
- homeVolendam4:1
- awayPSV II1:1
- awayHeracles2:3
- awayDordrecht6:3
- homeUtrecht II2:1
Helmond Sport
- homeHeracles2:2
- awayMVV0:2
- awayDen Bosch1:2
- homePSV II3:1
- homeVVV Venlo4:2
Head to head
- 04/03/26Eerste Divisie2:0
- 10/17/25Eerste Divisie2:4
- 01/26/25Eerste Divisie1:2
- 10/18/24Eerste Divisie2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Vitesse942315:1314
Vitesse942315:13149
NAC Breda942319:1914
NAC Breda942319:191410AZ II941422:1713
AZ II941422:171311
Volendam940520:1712
Volendam940520:171212
PSV II933314:1612
PSV II933314:161213
Eindhoven932415:1911
Eindhoven932415:191114Helmond Sport923415:169
Helmond Sport923415:16915
Oss930612:149
Oss930612:14916
Den Bosch922513:188
Den Bosch922513:188Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.