FC Dordrecht — VVV Venlo, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 24 at 02:30 PM

FC Dordrecht

1.6WLLLL

—

VVV Venlo

1.4LWWLW

Outcome probability

402337

FC Dordrecht40%Draw23%VVV Venlo37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Dordrecht40%2.51—

XDraw23%4.38—

2VVV Venlo37%2.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.59

No37%

ours 2.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC DordrechtVVV VenloCombined

Goals scored0.671.332.00

Conceded1.170.832.00

Corners7.010.08.5

Cards1.30.72.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC DordrechtVVV Venlo
18Table position4
4.9Days of rest7.9
54.30%Possession54.30%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Dordrecht look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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