All matches

Juventus — Lazio, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Juventus
3.2WWLDW
—
Lazio
2.7WDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%25%21%
Juventus54%Draw25%Lazio21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Juventus54%1.86—
XDraw25%3.93—
2Lazio21%4.80—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricJuventusLazioCombined
Goals scored1.671.333.00
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners7.89.28.5
Cards1.31.62.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

JuventusLazio

Juventus FC 54%, SS Lazio 21%. The safest is “Juventus FC or draw” at 81%.

Juventus FC 54%Draw 25%SS Lazio 21%
1st half
43 · 40 · 18
2nd half
40 · 36 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Juventus

  • homeAtalanta2:0
  • homeNEC Nijmegen5:0
  • awaySassuolo2:3
  • homeAC Milan1:1
  • homeParma2:0

Lazio

  • awayVenezia2:0
  • homeAC Milan2:2
  • awayUdinese2:1
  • homeGenoa1:0
  • awayBologna1:0

Head to head

  • 02/08/26Serie A2:2
  • 10/26/25Serie A0:1
  • 05/10/25Serie A1:1
  • 10/19/24Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Roma541014:313
2Inter Milan541015:813
3Lazio54108:313
4Cagliari54015:212
5AC Milan532010:411
6Frosinone53119:410
7Juventus53118:410
8Como53119:610
9Napoli52127:67

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.