Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.41
All matches
Fluminense — Cruzeiro, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%27%26%
Fluminense46%Draw27%Cruzeiro26%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fluminense2.15—
XDraw3.70—
2Cruzeiro3.78—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FluminenseCruzeiro
Fluminense FC 46%, Cruzeiro EC 26%. The safest is “Fluminense FC or draw” at 74%.
Fluminense FC 46%Draw 27%Cruzeiro EC 26%
1st half
44 · 38 · 18
2nd half
35 · 33 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Over 7.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFluminenseCruzeiroCombined
Goals scored1.602.404.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Fluminense- 2nd in the league for shots on target — 5.6 per match20 teams in the league
- Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5
Cruzeiro- 12 goals in the last 5 matches1:0, 4:2, 2:4, 2:0, 3:1
- 2.0 goals per game away8 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Fluminense
- homeInternacional2:1
- awayChapecoense1:2
- homeSantos1:2
- awayFlamengo0:1
- homeCoritiba4:0
Cruzeiro
- homeRemo1:0
- awayGremio4:2
- awayRed Bull Bragantino2:4
- homeSao Paulo2:0
- awayVitoria3:1
Head to head
- 05/31/26Serie A1:1
- 11/09/25Serie A0:0
- 07/17/25Serie A0:2
- 10/04/24Serie A1:0
- 06/20/24Serie A0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.