Coritiba FBC — EC Vitória, Serie A

Brazil, Serie AOctober 29 at 10:30 PM

Coritiba FBC

2.3LDLWW

—

EC Vitória

1.7LDWLL

Outcome probability

512622

Coritiba FBC51%Draw26%EC Vitória22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Coritiba FBC51%1.95—

XDraw26%3.80—

2EC Vitória22%4.47—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCoritiba FBCEC VitóriaCombined

Goals scored0.500.501.00

Conceded1.330.832.16

Corners12.513.513.0

Cards2.52.55.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Coritiba FBCEC Vitória
3Days of rest5.1
9Table position13
48.00%Possession34.50%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Coritiba FBC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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