Clube do Remo — Botafogo FR, Serie A

Brazil, Serie AOctober 29 at 12:30 AM

Clube do Remo

1.7LLLLL

—

Botafogo FR

2.6LWDDL

Outcome probability

332939

Clube do Remo33%Draw29%Botafogo FR39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Clube do Remo33%3.05—

XDraw29%3.50—

2Botafogo FR39%2.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.75

No43%

ours 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClube do RemoBotafogo FRCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners11.06.58.8

Cards1.51.02.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Clube do RemoBotafogo FR
19Table position12
5.1Days of rest4.2
43.00%Possession43.00%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Botafogo FR travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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