All matches

Bahia — Sao Paulo, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Bahia
2.4LWWWW
—
Sao Paulo
2.0LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
52%25%23%
Bahia52%Draw25%Sao Paulo23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bahia52%1.92—
XDraw25%3.94—
2Sao Paulo23%4.42—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBahiaSao PauloCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners11.010.510.8
Cards2.51.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BahiaSao Paulo

EC Bahia 52%, São Paulo FC 23%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

EC Bahia 52%Draw 25%São Paulo FC 23%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
37 · 38 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Bahia

  • awayCA Paranaense1:2
  • homeRemo2:1
  • awayRed Bull Bragantino3:2
  • homeInternacional3:2
  • awayVitoria2:0

Sao Paulo

  • homeSantos1:2
  • homeInternacional1:0
  • awayPalmeiras0:2
  • homeCA Mineiro2:0
  • homeRed Bull Bragantino2:1

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Serie A2:2
  • 10/26/25Serie A0:2
  • 05/31/25Serie A2:1
  • 11/06/24Serie A0:3
  • 06/30/24Serie A1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense28139644:3648
5Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro28127937:3243
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236
11Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
12Botafogo28981141:4535

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.