Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
—
Corinthians — Mirassol, Serie A
Brazil, Serie A
Corinthians
1.8LLLLL
Mirassol
2.5WDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%26%28%
Corinthians46%Draw26%Mirassol28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Corinthians2.19—
XDraw3.80—
2Mirassol3.58—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCorinthiansMirassolCombined
Goals scored0.330.671.00
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners16.012.014.0
Cards3.02.55.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CorinthiansMirassol
SC Corinthians Paulista 46%, Mirassol Futebol Clube 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
SC Corinthians Paulista 46%Draw 26%Mirassol Futebol Clube 28%
1st half
37 · 37 · 26
2nd half
36 · 39 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Corinthians
- homeFluminense1:3
- awayFlamengo1:2
- homeChapecoense1:2
- homeSantos0:1
- awayCoritiba1:2
Mirassol
- homeBotafogo2:0
- homeVitoria2:2
- awayCoritiba2:1
- awayFlamengo0:2
- homePalmeiras1:1
Head to head
- 05/03/26Serie A1:2
- 10/05/25Serie A3:0
- 05/10/25Serie A1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
Botafogo28981141:4535
Botafogo28981141:453513
Vitoria28961328:4233
Vitoria28961328:423314Corinthians28881229:3232
Corinthians28881229:323215Mirassol28881233:4232
Mirassol28881233:423216
Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
Vasco da Gama27871234:413117
Gremio28781330:3829
Gremio28781330:3829Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.