All matches

CA Mineiro — Cruzeiro EC, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

CA Mineiro
2.0DWLWD
—
Cruzeiro EC
2.7WLWLW
Outcome probability
422929
CA Mineiro42%Draw29%Cruzeiro EC29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Mineiro42%2.37—
XDraw29%3.47—
2Cruzeiro EC29%3.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.98

No50%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA MineiroCruzeiro ECCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners12.013.012.5
Cards2.03.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CA MineiroCruzeiro EC
    3Days of rest6
    67.00%Possession51.50%
    7Table position6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CA Mineiro look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CA Mineiro

  • homeChapecoense AF1:1
  • homeFluminense FC3:1
  • awaySão Paulo FC0:2
  • homeEC Vitória2:1
  • awaySC Internacional0:0

Cruzeiro EC

  • awayEC Vitória3:1
  • awaySantos FC Sao Paulo1:2
  • homeCA Paranaense3:1
  • awayCR Vasco da Gama1:3
  • homeCR Flamengo2:1

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Serie A3:1
  • 10/16/25Serie A1:1
  • 05/18/25Serie A0:0
  • 08/11/24Serie A0:0
  • 04/21/24Serie A3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Fluminense FC28139644:3648
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.