Velez Mostar vs Zeljeznicar prediction

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League28 November at 00:00 · UTC

VARStats prediction for 28 November: Velez Mostar 49%, draw 27%, Zeljeznicar 24%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.

Velez Mostar

1.9WLDLW

Zeljeznicar

2.0LLDLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

49%27%24%

Velez Mostar49%Draw27%Zeljeznicar24%

Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days

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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ

1Velez Mostar49%2.05—

XDraw27%3.64—

2Zeljeznicar24%4.22—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

Fair price 2.23

No55%

Fair price 1.81

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4542 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4527 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4514 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Most likely score

The three most likely scores according to the model. A probability, not a guarantee.

1:0Velez Mostar — Zeljeznicar · 15 %
1:1Velez Mostar — Zeljeznicar · 13 %
0:0Velez Mostar — Zeljeznicar · 10 %

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Velez MostarZeljeznicar

FK Velež Mostar 49%, FK Željezničar Sarajevo 24%. The safest is “FK Velež Mostar or draw” at 79%.

FK Velež Mostar 49%Draw 27%FK Željezničar Sarajevo 24%

1st half

34 · 48 · 18

2nd half

41 · 37 · 23

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total fouls: Over 24.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVelez MostarZeljeznicarCombined

Goals scored0.800.601.40

Conceded

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.