All matches

FK Sutjeska Nikšić — FK Jezero Plav, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Sutjeska Nikšić
2.4WWWDW
—
FK Jezero Plav
1.4LDLWL
Outcome probability
602317
FK Sutjeska Nikšić60%Draw23%FK Jezero Plav17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Sutjeska Nikšić60%1.66—
XDraw23%4.42—
2FK Jezero Plav17%5.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.36

No58%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Sutjeska NikšićFK Jezero PlavCombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded0.001.331.33
Corners11.36.08.7
Cards0.72.02.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Sutjeska NikšićFK Jezero Plav
    4Table position8
    48.70%Possession52.70%
    4Days of rest4
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Sutjeska Nikšić: a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Sutjeska Nikšić

  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat2:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac0:0
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica5:1

FK Jezero Plav

  • awayFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:4
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor1:1
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:3
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat5:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:2

Head to head

  • 08/22/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 04/26/26Montenegrin First League1:1
  • 03/01/26Montenegrin First League1:1
  • 10/26/25Montenegrin First League1:0
  • 08/24/25Montenegrin First League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.