All matches

Mornar — Petrovac, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

Mornar
2.3DLLWD
—
Petrovac
1.9LLDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%26%25%
Mornar50%Draw26%Petrovac25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mornar50%2.00—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Petrovac25%4.07—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMornarPetrovacCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.331.001.33
Corners11.59.510.5
Cards2.52.55.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MornarPetrovac

FK Mornar Bar 50%, OFK Petrovac 25%. The safest is “FK Mornar Bar or draw” at 74%.

FK Mornar Bar 50%Draw 26%OFK Petrovac 25%
1st half
39 · 41 · 20
2nd half
34 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Mornar

  • awayDecic1:1
  • homeOtrant-Olympic Ulcinj0:1
  • awaySutjeska0:1
  • homeBokelj Kotor2:0
  • awayPetrovac1:1

Petrovac

  • awayBuducnost1:4
  • homeArsenal Tivat1:2
  • awayDecic1:1
  • homeSutjeska0:0
  • homeMornar1:1

Head to head

  • 08/29/26Montenegrin First League1:1
  • 05/20/26Montenegrin First League1:1
  • 03/21/26Montenegrin First League2:0
  • 11/30/25Montenegrin First League3:1
  • 09/21/25Montenegrin First League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Sutjeska942311:714
5Buducnost942311:714
6Mornar93429:713
7Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8Jezero Plav92349:159
9Petrovac91537:98
10Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.