All matches

Jezero Plav — Decic, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

Jezero Plav
1.4LDLWL
—
Decic
1.8DLDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
37%26%37%
Jezero Plav37%Draw26%Decic37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Jezero Plav37%2.70—
XDraw26%3.82—
2Decic37%2.72—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricJezero PlavDecicCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners6.013.09.5
Cards3.01.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Jezero PlavDecic

FK Jezero Plav 37%, FK Dečić 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FK Jezero Plav 37%Draw 26%FK Dečić 37%
1st half
29 · 43 · 28
2nd half
31 · 38 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Jezero Plav

  • awayOtrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:4
  • homeBokelj Kotor1:1
  • awayBuducnost0:3
  • homeArsenal Tivat5:2
  • awayDecic1:2

Decic

  • homeMornar1:1
  • awaySutjeska0:2
  • homePetrovac1:1
  • awayMladost Donja Gorica0:2
  • homeJezero Plav2:1

Head to head

  • 08/30/26Montenegrin First League1:2
  • 05/10/26Montenegrin First League0:3
  • 03/11/26Montenegrin First League1:2
  • 11/09/25Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 09/13/25Montenegrin First League4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2Decic943210:715
3Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4Sutjeska942311:714
5Buducnost942311:714
6Mornar93429:713
7Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8Jezero Plav92349:159
9Petrovac91537:98
10Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.