Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj — Arsenal Tivat, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First LeagueNovember 1 at 02:00 PM

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

1.6WWLWW

—

Arsenal Tivat

1.5LWLLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

50%25%25%

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj50%Draw25%Arsenal Tivat25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj50%2.02—

XDraw25%3.93—

2Arsenal Tivat25%4.00—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOtrant-Olympic UlcinjArsenal TivatCombined

Goals scored0.830.331.16

Conceded0.170.500.67

Corners9.08.58.8

Cards2.52.04.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Otrant-Olympic UlcinjArsenal Tivat

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 50%, FK Arsenal Tivat 25%. The safest is “FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj or draw” at 75%.

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 50%Draw 25%FK Arsenal Tivat 25%

1st half

38 · 39 · 23

2nd half

37 · 38 · 25

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

67%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context