Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
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Arda — Septemvri Sofia, First League
Bulgaria, First League
Arda
2.4DLLWW
Septemvri Sofia
1.1LLLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
63%23%14%
Arda63%Draw23%Septemvri Sofia14%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Arda1.59—
XDraw4.44—
2Septemvri Sofia6.92—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricArdaSeptemvri SofiaCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners8.37.57.9
Cards3.03.06.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ArdaSeptemvri Sofia
FK Arda Kardzhali 63%, FK Septemvri Sofia 14%. The safest is “FK Arda Kardzhali or draw” at 82%.
FK Arda Kardzhali 63%Draw 23%FK Septemvri Sofia 14%
1st half
46 · 38 · 16
2nd half
39 · 36 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Arda
- homeCherno More1:1
- awayCSKA Sofia1:4
- homeBotev Plovdiv2:3
- homeBotev Vratsa2:0
- awayLokomotiv Plovdiv1:0
Septemvri Sofia
- homeBotev Plovdiv0:3
- awayLudogorets1:2
- homeBotev Vratsa2:3
- awaySlavia Sofia1:1
- homeCSKA 19481:0
Head to head
- 07/18/26First League1:1
- 03/21/26First League4:1
- 10/20/25First League0:1
- 04/07/25First League4:0
- 10/25/24First League2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Ludogorets972016:723
Ludogorets972016:7234
CSKA 19481071219:1022
CSKA 19481071219:10225Arda1052315:1217
Arda1052315:12176
Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
Botev Plovdiv1051416:14167
Slavia Sofia102539:811
Slavia Sofia102539:8118
Spartak Varna1024410:1510
Spartak Varna1024410:15109
Botev Vratsa102359:199
Botev Vratsa102359:19910Septemvri Sofia102268:188
Septemvri Sofia102268:18811
Lokomotiv Sofia1014511:187
Lokomotiv Sofia1014511:18712
Lokomotiv Plovdiv102175:137
Lokomotiv Plovdiv102175:137Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.