All matches

PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad — FK Arda Kardzhali, First League

Bulgaria, First League

PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad
3.3WWDDW
—
FK Arda Kardzhali
2.4DLLWW
Outcome probability
632214
PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad63%Draw22%FK Arda Kardzhali14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad63%1.58—
XDraw22%4.47—
2FK Arda Kardzhali14%6.93—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.44

No59%

ours 1.69

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPFC Ludogorets 1945 RazgradFK Arda KardzhaliCombined
Goals scored1.331.673.00
Conceded0.671.502.17
Corners8.67.27.9
Cards1.82.84.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PFC Ludogorets 1945 RazgradFK Arda Kardzhali
    3Table position5
    55.00%Possession54.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 63%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad

  • homeFK Septemvri Sofia2:1
  • awayFC Lokomotiv Sofia 19292:1
  • awayPFC Spartak 1918 Varna1:1
  • homePFC Slavia Sofia1:1
  • homeFK Botev Plovdiv2:0

FK Arda Kardzhali

  • homePFC Cherno More Varna1:1
  • awayPFC CSKA Sofia1:4
  • homeFK Botev Plovdiv2:3
  • homePOFK Botev Vratsa2:0
  • awayPFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv1:0

Head to head

  • 04/15/26First League0:1
  • 11/09/25First League2:3
  • 05/26/25First League2:2
  • 05/09/25First League1:1
  • 12/04/24First League4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1PFC Levski Sofia981021:425
2PFC CSKA Sofia1073024:724
3PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad972016:723
4FK CSKA 1948 Sofia1071219:1022
5FK Arda Kardzhali1052315:1217
6FK Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
7PFC Slavia Sofia102539:811

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.