All matches

FK Arda Kardzhali — PFC Levski Sofia, First League

Bulgaria, First League

FK Arda Kardzhali
2.4DLLWW
—
PFC Levski Sofia
3.8LDWWW
Outcome probability
162361
FK Arda Kardzhali16%Draw23%PFC Levski Sofia61%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Arda Kardzhali16%6.23—
XDraw23%4.28—
2PFC Levski Sofia61%1.65—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.29

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Arda KardzhaliPFC Levski SofiaCombined
Goals scored1.170.001.17
Conceded1.330.171.50
Corners7.69.58.6
Cards3.20.53.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Arda KardzhaliPFC Levski Sofia
    0Matches in 14 days2
    5Table position1
    14Days of rest4.9
    56.80%Possession63.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    PFC Levski Sofia travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 61%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Away

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

FK Arda Kardzhali

  • homePFC Cherno More Varna1:1
  • awayPFC CSKA Sofia1:4
  • homeFK Botev Plovdiv2:3
  • homePOFK Botev Vratsa2:0
  • awayPFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv1:0

PFC Levski Sofia

  • homeFC Salzburg0:1
  • awayPOFK Botev Vratsa0:0
  • homeFK CSKA 1948 Sofia1:0
  • awayPFC Slavia Sofia2:1
  • awayFK Botev Plovdiv3:1

Head to head

  • 04/09/26First League0:1
  • 11/02/25First League0:3
  • 05/14/25First League0:3
  • 04/26/25First League1:1
  • 03/16/25First League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1PFC Levski Sofia981021:425
2PFC CSKA Sofia1073024:724
3PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad972016:723
4FK CSKA 1948 Sofia1071219:1022
5FK Arda Kardzhali1052315:1217
6FK Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
7PFC Slavia Sofia102539:811

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.