All matches

Cherno More — Septemvri Sofia, First League

Bulgaria, First League

Cherno More
1.9DDLLW
—
Septemvri Sofia
1.1LLLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
57%25%19%
Cherno More57%Draw25%Septemvri Sofia19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cherno More57%1.76—
XDraw25%4.07—
2Septemvri Sofia19%5.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCherno MoreSeptemvri SofiaCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners7.87.27.5
Cards2.83.46.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cherno MoreSeptemvri Sofia

PFC Cherno More Varna 57%, FK Septemvri Sofia 19%. The safest is “PFC Cherno More Varna or draw” at 80%.

PFC Cherno More Varna 57%Draw 25%FK Septemvri Sofia 19%
1st half
43 · 40 · 17
2nd half
39 · 36 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cherno More

  • awayArda1:1
  • homeLokomotiv Sofia2:2
  • awayLokomotiv Plovdiv0:1
  • awayCSKA Sofia1:3
  • homeDunav Ruse3:1

Septemvri Sofia

  • homeBotev Plovdiv0:3
  • awayLudogorets1:2
  • homeBotev Vratsa2:3
  • awaySlavia Sofia1:1
  • homeCSKA 19481:0

Head to head

  • 03/07/26First League3:0
  • 09/27/25First League1:1
  • 11/29/24First League2:1
  • 07/29/24First League2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Spartak Varna1024410:1510
9Botev Vratsa102359:199
10Septemvri Sofia102268:188
11Lokomotiv Sofia1014511:187
12Lokomotiv Plovdiv102175:137
13Cherno More1013611:206
14Dunav Ruse1012710:195

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.