Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.19
All matches
Cherno More — Botev Plovdiv, First League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
40%28%32%
Cherno More40%Draw28%Botev Plovdiv32%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cherno More2.51—
XDraw3.56—
2Botev Plovdiv3.11—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Cherno MoreBotev Plovdiv
PFC Cherno More Varna 40%, FK Botev Plovdiv 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.
PFC Cherno More Varna 40%Draw 28%FK Botev Plovdiv 32%
1st half
38 · 41 · 21
2nd half
33 · 31 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCherno MoreBotev PlovdivCombined
Goals scored1.002.203.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Cherno More- Relegation zone: 12th of 14
- One win in the last 5 matches2:0, 0:2, 1:1, 2:2, 0:1
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Botev Plovdiv- 3 clean sheets in the last 55:2, 0:4, 1:0, 3:0, 2:0
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches5:2, 0:4, 1:0, 3:0, 2:0
- Won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings1:0, 5:0, 0:2, 2:1, 1:2
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Cherno More
- homeSeptemvri Sofia2:0
- homeLevski Sofia0:2
- awayArda1:1
- homeLokomotiv Sofia2:2
- awayLokomotiv Plovdiv0:1
Botev Plovdiv
- awayLokomotiv Sofia5:2
- awayCSKA 19480:4
- homeSlavia Sofia1:0
- awaySeptemvri Sofia3:0
- homeLokomotiv Plovdiv2:0
Head to head
- 08/01/26First League0:1
- 05/16/26First League0:5
- 05/09/26First League2:0
- 11/29/25First League1:2
- 07/27/25First League2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Bulgaria, First League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.