Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.29
All matches
—
Lorient — Brest, Ligue 1
France, Ligue 1
Lorient
1.9LDWLD
Brest
1.7LLWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%25%28%
Lorient48%Draw25%Brest28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lorient2.10—
XDraw4.01—
2Brest3.63—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLorientBrestCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners6.38.77.5
Cards1.71.02.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LorientBrest
FC Lorient 48%, Stade Brestois 29 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Lorient 48%Draw 25%Stade Brestois 29 28%
1st half
36 · 38 · 27
2nd half
32 · 40 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lorient
- awayLe Mans1:2
- homeToulouse2:2
- awayLens1:0
- homeTroyes1:2
- awayNice0:0
Brest
- awayAuxerre1:2
- homePSG0:1
- awayLe Havre2:1
- homeToulouse2:2
- awayLe Mans2:2
Head to head
- 02/07/26Ligue 10:2
- 10/19/25Ligue 13:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Le Mans51319:96
Le Mans51319:9610
Auxerre52037:126
Auxerre52037:12611Brest51227:85
Brest51227:8512Lorient51225:65
Lorient51225:6513
Toulouse51227:95
Toulouse51227:9514
Nice51223:65
Nice51223:65Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.