All matches

Lille OSC Métropole — Stade Brestois 29, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Lille OSC Métropole
2.7LWLWD
—
Stade Brestois 29
1.7LLWDD
Outcome probability
652016
Lille OSC Métropole65%Draw20%Stade Brestois 2916%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lille OSC Métropole65%1.55—
XDraw20%5.08—
2Stade Brestois 2916%6.35—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLille OSC MétropoleStade Brestois 29Combined
Goals scored1.001.172.17
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners8.89.29.0
Cards0.81.21.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Lille OSC MétropoleStade Brestois 29
    4Table position11
    2Matches in 14 days1
    4Days of rest7
    53.00%Possession46.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Lille OSC Métropole: a home win is rated at 65%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Lille OSC Métropole

  • awayOGC Nice Côte d'Azur1:2
  • homeEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne2:0
  • homeReal Betis Balompié2:3
  • awayToulouse FC1:0
  • homeParis Saint-Germain FC2:2

Stade Brestois 29

  • awayAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise1:2
  • homeParis Saint-Germain FC0:1
  • awayLe Havre AC2:1
  • homeToulouse FC2:2
  • awayLe Mans FC2:2

Head to head

  • 02/14/26Ligue 11:1
  • 08/17/25Ligue 13:3
  • 05/10/25Ligue 10:2
  • 12/06/24Ligue 13:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Olympique Lyonnais532010:211
3Paris FC53208:311
4Lille OSC Métropole53118:410
5Stade Rennais FC53118:910
6Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78
7Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:57
8RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107
9Le Mans FC51319:96
10Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:126
11Stade Brestois 2951227:85
12FC Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse FC51227:95

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.