All matches

Stade Brestois 29 — OGC Nice Côte d'Azur, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29
1.7LLWDD
—
OGC Nice Côte d'Azur
1.3WLDLD
Outcome probability
472528
Stade Brestois 2947%Draw25%OGC Nice Côte d'Azur28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Stade Brestois 2947%2.12—
XDraw25%4.01—
2OGC Nice Côte d'Azur28%3.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStade Brestois 29OGC Nice Côte d'AzurCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners8.88.58.6
Cards1.31.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Stade Brestois 29OGC Nice Côte d'Azur
    11Table position14
    46.00%Possession56.30%
    6Days of rest5
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Stade Brestois 29 look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Stade Brestois 29

  • awayAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise1:2
  • homeParis Saint-Germain FC0:1
  • awayLe Havre AC2:1
  • homeToulouse FC2:2
  • awayLe Mans FC2:2

OGC Nice Côte d'Azur

  • homeLille OSC Métropole2:1
  • awayAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise0:1
  • homeLe Mans FC1:1
  • awayParis FC0:3
  • homeFC Lorient0:0

Head to head

  • 02/01/26Ligue 12:2
  • 09/20/25Ligue 14:1
  • 05/17/25Ligue 10:6
  • 11/02/24Ligue 10:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Le Mans FC51319:96
10Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:126
11Stade Brestois 2951227:85
12FC Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse FC51227:95
14OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:65
15Racing Club de Lens51139:94
16Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.