Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.51
All matches
Barcelona vs Villarreal prediction
VARStats prediction for 22 November: Barcelona 78%, draw 15%, Villarreal 7%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
78%15%
Barcelona78%Draw15%Villarreal7%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Barcelona1.28—
XDraw6.62—
2Villarreal14.60—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4407 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4392 matches
Cards prediction
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4375 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BarcelonaVillarreal
FC Barcelona 78%, Villarreal CF 7%. The safest is “FC Barcelona or draw” at 91%.
FC Barcelona 78%Draw 15%Villarreal CF 7%
1st half
56 · 30 · 14
2nd half
56 · 28 · 16
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBarcelonaVillarrealCombined
Goals scored3.601.605.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Barcelona- 18 goals in the last 5 matches6:1, 1:2, 2:4, 5:2, 4:1
- Best attack in the league — 46 goals in 11 matches1st place, 30 points
- Most shots on target in the league — 8.1 per match20 teams in the league
Villarreal- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- 2nd in the league for corners — 11.7 per match20 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Barcelona
- homeAlaves6:1
- homeReal Madrid1:2
- awayPSG2:4
- awayReal Betis5:2
- awayGalatasaray4:1
Villarreal
- homeEspanyol0:1
- awayValencia2:1
- awayLiverpool3:4
- homeElche0:0
- homeNapoli3:1
Head to head
- 02/28/26La Liga4:1
- 12/21/25La Liga2:0
- 05/18/25La Liga2:3
- 09/22/24La Liga5:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Spain, La Liga: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.