Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77
No43%
ours 2.30
All matches
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Athletic Bilbao — Real Sociedad, La Liga
Spain, La Liga
Athletic Bilbao
2.1DDWWL
Real Sociedad
1.8WLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%25%22%
Athletic Bilbao53%Draw25%Real Sociedad22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Athletic Bilbao1.87—
XDraw4.05—
2Real Sociedad4.56—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAthletic BilbaoReal SociedadCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners7.012.09.5
Cards2.52.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Athletic BilbaoReal Sociedad
Athletic Club Bilbao 53%, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 22%. The safest is “Athletic Club Bilbao or draw” at 80%.
Athletic Club Bilbao 53%Draw 25%Real Sociedad de Fútbol 22%
1st half
41 · 39 · 20
2nd half
42 · 35 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Athletic Bilbao
- homeAlaves0:0
- homeElche1:1
- homeAtletico Madrid3:0
- awayCelta Vigo2:0
- awayBarcelona0:2
Real Sociedad
- awayValencia3:2
- homeBournemouth1:2
- homeAtletico Madrid0:3
- awayElche3:2
- homeCelta Vigo0:0
Head to head
- 02/01/26La Liga1:1
- 11/01/25La Liga2:3
- 05/04/25La Liga0:0
- 11/24/24La Liga1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Alaves732211:611
Alaves732211:6117
Deportivo La Coruna724110:810
Deportivo La Coruna724110:8108Real Sociedad73139:1310
Real Sociedad73139:13109
Villarreal722313:128
Villarreal722313:12810Athletic Bilbao62227:68
Athletic Bilbao62227:6811
Getafe72234:78
Getafe72234:7812
Rayo Vallecano722311:168
Rayo Vallecano722311:168Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.