Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.24
All matches
Vitoria — Fluminense, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
33%29%37%
Vitoria33%Draw29%Fluminense37%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vitoria2.99—
XDraw3.44—
2Fluminense2.67—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VitoriaFluminense
EC Vitória 33%, Fluminense FC 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 71%.
EC Vitória 33%Draw 29%Fluminense FC 37%
1st half
28 · 45 · 28
2nd half
32 · 33 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVitoriaFluminenseCombined
Goals scored1.601.803.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Vitoria- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 9.4 per match20 teams in the league
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches1:1, 1:1, 1:2, 4:0, 1:3
Fluminense- 3 defeats in a row1:2, 1:2, 0:1, 4:0, 3:1
- 2nd in the league for shots on target — 5.6 per match20 teams in the league
- Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Vitoria
- homeAthletico Paranaense1:1
- awayCorinthians1:1
- awaySao Paulo1:2
- homeChapecoense4:0
- homeCruzeiro1:3
Fluminense
- awayChapecoense1:2
- homeSantos1:2
- awayFlamengo0:1
- homeCoritiba4:0
- awayCorinthians3:1
Head to head
- 05/09/26Serie A2:2
- 09/20/25Serie A0:1
- 04/20/25Serie A1:1
- 10/26/24Serie A2:1
- 06/27/24Serie A1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.