All matches

Santos — Palmeiras, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Santos
2.3WWWWW
—
Palmeiras
3.5DWDDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
35%26%39%
Santos35%Draw26%Palmeiras39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Santos35%2.87—
XDraw26%3.89—
2Palmeiras39%2.53—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSantosPalmeirasCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded0.330.000.33
Corners12.013.012.5
Cards3.54.58.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SantosPalmeiras

Santos FC Sao Paulo 35%, SE Palmeiras 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Santos FC Sao Paulo 35%Draw 26%SE Palmeiras 39%
1st half
34 · 39 · 27
2nd half
28 · 36 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Santos

  • awaySao Paulo2:1
  • awayRemo2:1
  • homeCruzeiro2:1
  • awayInternacional3:2
  • awayCorinthians1:0

Palmeiras

  • awayGremio0:0
  • homeSao Paulo2:0
  • awayBotafogo0:0
  • awayMirassol1:1
  • homeVasco da Gama4:1

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Serie A1:1
  • 11/16/25Serie A1:0
  • 11/07/25Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Flamengo28186455:2360
2Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense28139644:3648
5Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro28127937:3243
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.