Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.40
All matches
—
Red Bull Bragantino — Chapecoense, Serie A
Brazil, Serie A
Red Bull Bragantino
1.7LLDLL
Chapecoense
1.4DLWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
61%23%16%
Red Bull Bragantino61%Draw23%Chapecoense16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Red Bull Bragantino1.64—
XDraw4.36—
2Chapecoense6.19—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRed Bull BragantinoChapecoenseCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners11.09.010.0
Cards2.03.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Red Bull BragantinoChapecoense
Clube Atlético Bragantino 61%, Chapecoense AF 16%. The safest is “Clube Atlético Bragantino or draw” at 84%.
Clube Atlético Bragantino 61%Draw 23%Chapecoense AF 16%
1st half
51 · 33 · 16
2nd half
39 · 36 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Red Bull Bragantino
- awayCA Mineiro0:1
- awayFlamengo1:2
- awayBotafogo1:1
- homeBahia2:3
- awaySao Paulo1:2
Chapecoense
- awayCA Mineiro1:1
- homeInternacional1:2
- awayCorinthians2:1
- awayGremio1:3
- homeSao Paulo1:0
Head to head
- 05/03/26Serie A2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Coritiba281081037:4338
Coritiba281081037:433810
Sao Paulo281061233:3236
Sao Paulo281061233:323611Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
Red Bull Bragantino281061233:323612
Botafogo28981141:4535
Botafogo28981141:453513
Vitoria28961328:4233
Vitoria28961328:423314
Corinthians28881229:3232
Corinthians28881229:323215
Mirassol28881233:4232
Mirassol28881233:423216
Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
Vasco da Gama27871234:413117
Gremio28781330:3829
Gremio28781330:382918
Internacional286101230:3628
Internacional286101230:362819
Remo28581532:4723
Remo28581532:472320Chapecoense27391529:5318
Chapecoense27391529:5318Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.