CR Flamengo — CA Mineiro, Serie A

Brazil, Serie AOctober 26 at 11:00 PM

CR Flamengo

3.6WWWWW

—

CA Mineiro

2.0DWLWD

Outcome probability

7019

CR Flamengo70%Draw19%CA Mineiro11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CR Flamengo70%1.42—

XDraw19%5.29—

2CA Mineiro11%9.26—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.31

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCR FlamengoCA MineiroCombined

Goals scored0.830.671.50

Conceded0.330.330.66

Corners14.39.511.9

Cards3.01.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CR FlamengoCA Mineiro
1Table position7
64.70%Possession57.00%
8.1Days of rest9.1
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour CR Flamengo: a home win is rated at 70%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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