All matches

Clube do Remo — Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Clube do Remo
1.7LLLLL
—
Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense
1.5DLLLW
Outcome probability
452728
Clube do Remo45%Draw27%Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Clube do Remo45%2.20—
XDraw27%3.72—
2Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense28%3.62—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClube do RemoGrêmio FB Porto AlegrenseCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded1.831.333.16
Corners12.29.510.8
Cards2.23.35.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Clube do RemoGrêmio FB Porto Alegrense
    19Table position17
    45.20%Possession49.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Clube do Remo: a home win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Clube do Remo

  • homeSantos FC Sao Paulo1:2
  • awayEC Bahia1:2
  • homeCR Flamengo0:1
  • homeCoritiba FBC2:3
  • awayFluminense FC1:2

Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense

  • homeSE Palmeiras0:0
  • awayBotafogo FR2:3
  • homeCR Vasco da Gama1:2
  • awayEC Vitória0:1
  • homeChapecoense AF3:1

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Serie A0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15Mirassol Futebol Clube28881233:4232
16CR Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense28781330:3829
18SC Internacional286101230:3628
19Clube do Remo28581532:4723
20Chapecoense AF27391529:5318

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.