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Cienciano 1:1 Los Chankas, Primera División: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Peru, Primera DivisiónMatch finished

2.2WLWWD
1:1HT 0:0
1.8DLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
63%21%15%
CiencianoPrice 1.4463%DrawPrice 4.2021%Los ChankasPrice 5.5015%
Line-upsCienciano4-2-3-1—Los Chankas4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Cienciano4-2-3-1Los Chankas4-2-3-1

Cienciano4-2-3-1

Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

Starting XI

  • 31GKPeruÍ. Espinoza
  • 13DFParaguayC. Núñez
  • 4DFUruguayM. Amondarain
  • 3DFEcuadorK. Becerra
  • 22DFPeruC. Cabello
  • 5MFUruguayS. Arias
  • 19MFPeruM. Succar
  • 7MFUruguayC. Souza
  • 88MFPeruG. Barreto
  • 11MFArgentinaN. Bandiera
  • 21FWEcuadorC. Garcés

Substitutes

  • 27DFPeruA. Yovera
  • 99FWNadhir Colunga
  • 14DFPeruS. Cavero
  • 26DFPeruR. Aguilar
  • 1GKUruguayG. Falcón
  • 18FWPeruD. La Torre
  • 29MFPeruA. Robles
  • 25DFPeruR. Salazar
  • 17FWPeruR. Sandoval

Los Chankas4-2-3-1

Coach: J. Balazar

Starting XI

  • 1GKPeruH. Camacho
  • 30DFM. Kaufman
  • 33DFUruguayC. Pimienta
  • 2DFArgentinaH. González
  • 27DFPeruK. Barrios
  • 17MFPeruC. Velarde
  • 5MFPeruJ. Palomino
  • 18MFPeruO. Takeuchi
  • 20MFColombiaM. Torres
  • 6MFPanamaA. Ayarza
  • 10FWArgentinaF. Torres

Substitutes

  • 16DFPeruA. Chávez
  • 77FWPeruF. Espinoza
  • 26DFPeruD. Gonzáles
  • 7FWColombiaJ. Ospina
  • 12GKL. Pretel
  • 11FWColombiaJ. Quintero
  • 24DFUruguayG. Rizzo
  • 4MFPeruA. Campos
  • 15MFPeruK. Sánchez

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.81xG0.75
56Possession, %44
19Shots8
5Shots on target2
10Corners0
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
14Fouls11
1Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 204 of 255void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Cienciano63%

    Actual: Draw — we had 21%

  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.565%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 35%

  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes54%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Cienciano63%66%1.581.44-2.8
XDraw21%20%4.684.20+1.8
2Los Chankas15%14%6.495.50+1.0

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Cienciano

  • homeAtletico Grau3:0
  • awayComerciantes Unidos1:3
  • homeUT Cajamarca1:0
  • awayUCV Moquegua2:0
  • homeLos Chankas1:1

Los Chankas

  • awayUCV Moquegua0:0
  • homeCusco0:1
  • awayGarcilaso1:4
  • homeDeportivo Tarma2:1
  • awayAtletico Grau0:0

Head to head

  • 09/30/26Primera División1:1
  • 04/23/26Primera División0:1
  • 08/05/25Primera División3:0
  • 03/23/25Primera División0:0
  • 08/03/24Primera División0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Garcilaso311561047:3351
5Cusco321631346:4451
6Cienciano311551153:4350
8Sporting Cristal311451257:4747
9Los Chankas321381139:5147
10Sport Boys311281135:3344
11Sport Huancayo311351344:4844

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.