Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
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Comerciantes Unidos — Deportivo Tarma, Primera División
Peru, Primera División
Comerciantes Unidos
1.3LLDLW
Deportivo Tarma
1.6WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%25%24%
Comerciantes Unidos50%Draw25%Deportivo Tarma24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Comerciantes Unidos1.99—
XDraw3.95—
2Deportivo Tarma4.10—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricComerciantes UnidosDeportivo TarmaCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners11.011.511.3
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Comerciantes UnidosDeportivo Tarma
CD Comerciantes Unidos 50%, Asociación Deportiva Tarma 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
CD Comerciantes Unidos 50%Draw 25%Asociación Deportiva Tarma 24%
1st half
36 · 40 · 25
2nd half
34 · 39 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Comerciantes Unidos
- awayAlianza Atletico Sullana1:2
- homeSport Huancayo0:1
- awayUniversitario de Deportes2:2
- homeCajamarca2:3
- awayUT Cajamarca3:1
Deportivo Tarma
- homeCienciano2:1
- awayAlianza Lima0:2
- awayMelgar0:3
- homeSport Huancayo1:3
- awayJuan Pablo II1:5
Head to head
- 05/17/26Primera División0:2
- 11/23/25Primera División0:0
- 07/11/25Primera División0:1
- 10/28/24Primera División0:0
- 05/19/24Primera División0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
Juan Pablo II27971142:523413
Atletico Grau27951326:3132
Atletico Grau27951326:313214Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
Comerciantes Unidos27791135:383015
Cajamarca27761441:5227
Cajamarca27761441:522716Deportivo Tarma27671429:4225
Deportivo Tarma27671429:422517
UCV Moquegua27671424:4125
UCV Moquegua27671424:412518
UT Cajamarca27481532:5020
UT Cajamarca27481532:5020Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.