CF Pachuca — Club Necaxa, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 11 at 11:15 PM

CF Pachuca

2.1LDWWD

—

Club Necaxa

1.4LLLDL

Outcome probability

642115

CF Pachuca64%Draw21%Club Necaxa15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CF Pachuca64%1.56—

XDraw21%4.83—

2Club Necaxa15%6.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCF PachucaClub NecaxaCombined

Goals scored1.501.002.50

Conceded0.832.173.00

Corners9.710.510.1

Cards3.02.35.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CF PachucaClub Necaxa
0Matches in 14 days1
11Table position17
44.80%Possession48.30%
14Days of rest13.8
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CF Pachuca look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 64%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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