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Necaxa 2:4 America, Liga MX: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Mexico, Liga MXMatch finished

Necaxa
1.2DLLDL
2:4HT 2:2
America
2.6DDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
23%25%52%
NecaxaPrice 3.7723%DrawPrice 3.5825%AmericaPrice 1.8752%
Line-upsNecaxa3-4-2-1—America4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Necaxa3-4-2-1America4-2-3-1

Necaxa3-4-2-1

Coach: M. Varini

Starting XI

  • 12GKMexicoL. Jiménez
  • 5DFBrazilKaiky Naves
  • 15DFMexicoD. Ochoa
  • 33DFMexicoR. Martínez
  • 13MFMexicoOwen de Jesús González Ojeda
  • 16MFMexicoP. Pedraza
  • 6MFUSAD. Leyva
  • 88MFMexicoC. Vargas
  • 21MFArgentinaM. Espíndola
  • 99MFMexicoM. Rodríguez
  • 9FWArgentinaJ. Carranza

Substitutes

  • 14MFMexicoM. Zaleta
  • 17MFMexicoR. Cortéz
  • 7FWColombiaK. Rosero
  • 1GKMexicoC. Andrade
  • 8MFArgentinaL. Faravelli
  • 2DFMexicoE. Martínez
  • 20DFMexicoF. Méndez
  • 10MFArgentinaJ. Ruiz
  • 11MFColombiaJ. Torres
  • 90FWColombiaJ. Valencia

America4-2-3-1

Coach: G. Almada

Starting XI

  • 30GKMexicoR. Cota
  • 34DFMexicoD. Espinoza
  • 2DFMexicoE. Lara
  • 32DFMexicoM. Vázquez
  • 26DFColombiaC. Borja
  • 28MFMexicoÉ. Sánchez
  • 6MFUSAE. Cerrillo
  • 10MFUSAA. Zendejas
  • 8MFSpainCarlos Álvarez
  • 93MFColombiaM. Borja
  • 9FWMexicoH. Martín

Substitutes

  • 189FWA. Cardenas
  • 20MFMexicoA. Gutiérrez
  • 29DFMexicoR. Juárez
  • 1GKMexicoL. Malagón
  • 15DFArgentinaS. Ramos
  • 24DFMexicoF. Rossano
  • 217MFIcaro
  • 5DFMexicoK. Álvarez
  • 14DFUruguayS. Bueno

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.58xG2.35
53Possession, %47
15Shots21
6Shots on target10
3Corners5
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
16Fouls6
1Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

3 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 187 of 255void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    America52%
  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.559%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes58%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Necaxa23%24%4.273.77-0.5
XDraw25%25%4.003.58-0.3
2America52%51%1.941.87+0.7

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Necaxa

  • homeJuarez1:1
  • awayGuadalajara0:1
  • homeAtlas0:2
  • awayPachuca3:3
  • homeAmerica2:4

America

  • homeDeportivo Toluca2:2
  • homeTijuana1:1
  • homePachuca1:2
  • awayAtlas5:2
  • awayLeon5:3

Head to head

  • 09/28/26Liga MX2:4
  • 01/31/26Liga MX0:2
  • 07/27/25Liga MX1:1
  • 02/15/25Liga MX3:2
  • 09/22/24Liga MX1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1America1585236:2129
2Guadalajara1585225:1429
3Atlas1583426:2627
4Cruz Azul1482432:2326
5Deportivo Toluca1566331:2124
6Tijuana1557325:2122
7Leon1464421:1822
8Monterrey1463526:2121
9Pumas UNAM1555522:2420
10Queretaro1462618:2120
11Pachuca1554625:1919
12Santos Laguna1461720:2019
13Atletico San Luis1554619:2319
14Puebla1544717:2316
15Tigres UANL1536615:2215
16Atlante1535716:2414
17Necaxa1424816:2710
18Juarez15221112:348

More matches in this competition

Mexico, Liga MX: upcoming and recently played.

All competition matches →

Upcoming

Santos Laguna–Necaxa532324Cruz Azul–Leon572320Necaxa–Tijuana412633Atletico San Luis–Juarez552421Atlante–Santos Laguna542521

Played

America2:2Deportivo Toluca422434×Guadalajara4:2Atlante672014✓Monterrey3:3Tijuana602218×

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.