All matches

Club Necaxa — CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Necaxa
1.4LLLDL
—
CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara
1.7WDLDL
Outcome probability
392734
Club Necaxa39%Draw27%CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Necaxa39%2.54—
XDraw27%3.72—
2CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara34%2.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.43

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub NecaxaCSyD Atlas de GuadalajaraCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded2.002.004.00
Corners10.211.210.7
Cards2.41.43.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club NecaxaCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara
    17Table position6
    47.60%Possession58.20%
    5.1Days of rest6
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Necaxa look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Necaxa

  • homeClub América2:4
  • awayAtlético San Luis1:3
  • homePuebla FC0:1
  • awayTigres UANL1:1
  • homeCruz Azul FC1:3

CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara

  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente3:2
  • homeClub Universidad Nacional1:1
  • awayDeportivo Toluca FC2:5
  • homeClub Atlante1:1
  • homeQuerétaro FC1:3

Head to head

  • 01/17/26Liga MX0:1
  • 09/27/25Liga MX2:3
  • 02/19/25Liga MX4:0
  • 11/10/24Liga MX0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208
18FC Juárez101097:253

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.